Colombia: A Corporate/M&A Overview
As Colombia enters 2026, the country’s business environment continues to be shaped by significant political and economic dynamics. The current administration is in its final year in office, creating a transitional environment as the country prepares for congressional and presidential elections during the first half of the year.
Throughout its term, the government’s reform agenda has encountered significant institutional resistance, with several legislative initiatives either halted through congressional scrutiny or challenged before the courts on constitutional grounds. On the labour front, businesses are expected to face higher operating costs following the approval of a 23% increase in the minimum wage, a measure likely to place upward pressure on payroll expenses, operating margins and inflation levels.
The macroeconomic landscape has also been influenced by the government’s inability to secure approval for its proposed tax reform, limiting fiscal flexibility and increasing reliance on public debt markets. At the same time, capital inflows linked to sovereign debt placements contributed to the appreciation of the Colombian peso, increasing the relative valuation of local assets and, in some cases, prompting foreign investors to adopt a more cautious stance. The appreciation of the peso reflects both global and domestic factors. Globally, capital reallocation toward emerging markets and commodity price stabilisation have supported regional currencies, while domestically, relatively high interest rates and continued access to international financing have reinforced this trend.
Macroeconomic forecasts continue to reflect moderate growth expectations. While IMF projections indicated growth of approximately 2.3% and inflation of 3.5%, local monetary authorities have suggested inflation could remain closer to 6.3%, reflecting ongoing structural cost pressures and recent wage adjustments.
Regulatory signalling has also introduced an additional layer of uncertainty, particularly regarding potential government intervention in public utility tariffs and the rules to reschedule vigencias futuras in toll road projects. Nevertheless, Colombia’s institutional framework – including judicial review and legislative counterweights – continues to provide a degree of legal predictability, with courts and Congress acting as effective checks on measures perceived as fiscally or constitutionally unsustainable.
Despite these headwinds, Colombia continues to demonstrate structural resilience relative to regional peers. The country benefits from a diversified productive base, a sophisticated financial system and institutional mechanisms that have historically supported contract enforceability and transactional certainty. Even in periods of moderated growth and tighter liquidity conditions, strategic investors and infrastructure funds have continued to deploy capital selectively, reflecting sustained confidence in Colombia as a long-term investment destination.
These political and economic dynamics had a measurable impact on M&A activity in 2025. According to Transactional Track Record (TTR), total transaction volume reached 288 deals, representing a 7.10% decrease compared to 2024, while aggregate transaction value declined by approximately 18.16% year-on-year. These figures illustrate a more cautious investment environment, with market participants adopting more selective investment strategies amid regulatory and macroeconomic volatility.
However, the reduction in activity levels appears primarily cyclical rather than structural. High-quality assets continued to attract capital, particularly in regulated sectors, infrastructure, financial services and energy transition segments.
From a transactional perspective, 2025 continued to generate complex and high-profile strategic transactions. These included the creation of Grupo Cibest through the reorganisation of Bancolombia and the unwinding of the historic cross-shareholding structure between Grupo Sura and Grupo Argos, both of which reactivated public markets and generated shareholder value. In infrastructure, global investors continued to demonstrate strong appetite for operational assets, including Actis’s acquisition from Sacyr of a toll road portfolio and Patria’s acquisition of Pacifico Tres.
The year also saw relevant consolidation transactions across financial services, energy distribution and energy transition. The transaction between Davivienda and Scotiabank represented a significant development in the financial sector, reinforcing trends toward consolidation, scale optimisation and regional platform integration.
In the energy distribution space, Uno Corp’s acquisition of Primax’s downstream businesses in Colombia, Peru and Ecuador reflected continued regional consolidation in fuel distribution and retail energy infrastructure, highlighting the strategic importance of multi-jurisdictional platforms across the Andean region.
In parallel, Promigas’ acquisition of Zelestra’s renewable energy platform illustrated the growing convergence between traditional gas infrastructure operators and renewable generation assets, as companies increasingly pursue integrated energy platform strategies combining gas transportation, power generation and energy commercialisation.
Looking ahead, infrastructure and telecommunications are expected to remain among the most dynamic sectors in Colombia’s transactional landscape. In the energy infrastructure segment, one of the principal structural challenges remains the projected natural gas supply deficit, expected to increase significantly toward 2026. In response, multiple stakeholders are advancing LNG import and regasification initiatives across the country, including expansions of existing terminals and the development of new facilities along both Caribbean and Pacific coasts.
In telecommunications, sector consolidation continues to advance. Millicom’s acquisition of Colombia Telecomunicaciones (Movistar Colombia) has progressed through regulatory milestones, including conditional antitrust approval for the integration of Tigo and Movistar and subsequent acquisitions through privatisation processes and public tender offers, which are expected to consolidate the country’s second-largest mobile operator.
Macroeconomic uncertainty may also generate increased activity in distressed and special situations transactions. The ongoing restructuring of Canacol Energy illustrates how liquidity pressures, arbitration outcomes and production challenges can create restructuring and investment opportunities for investors with specialised risk appetite.
Looking forward, Colombia’s M&A outlook will continue to be influenced by domestic political developments, particularly the outcome of congressional and presidential elections, which will be relevant for regulatory visibility and investor confidence. At a regional level, political transitions across Latin America may influence capital flows and cross-border deal structuring. Globally, geopolitical dynamics – particularly involving the United States and China – may continue to shape trade flows and foreign investment patterns affecting Colombia.
At the same time, structural drivers such as infrastructure gaps, energy transition requirements, demographic trends and financial sector depth are expected to continue generating transactional opportunities. While short-term volatility may persist, Colombia is expected to remain a relevant destination for long-term capital deployment, particularly for investors capable of navigating regulatory cycles and macroeconomic variability.