Geopolitical Risk, Climate Change, and Cybersecurity

Global supply chains have been destabilised by several issues including the long-standing geopolitical uncertainty caused by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Donald Trump’s latest tariffs, and ongoing tensions around a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The situation was further compounded in May by a near-miss conflict between India and Pakistan, as well as the Gaza conflict and wider instability in the Middle East. One source told us: “I think, going forward, the uncertainty with global politics will mean we may see more crisis matters,” and another remarked that “the volatility around Trump has been spectacular.”  

These geopolitical developments have driven rising demand for legal and advisory services related to sanctions, export controls, and tariff disputes. Many businesses have also required legal counsel to assist with renegotiating supply chains or pursuing litigation against the Trump administration over tariff related disruptions.   

These regional uncertainties have led businesses to withdraw, both financially and logistically, from certain regions. A source told us that the Ukraine war has meant that “we saw a lot of clients wanting to pull out of the two jurisdictions and wanting to divert their work into other jurisdictions”. Some financial firms have also withdrawn investments from Israel and, similarly, investors have withdrawn from both India and Pakistan, with the latter’s smaller and more fragile economy being hit harder. Several nations have shifted trade and investment away from the United States over Trump’s tariffs and isolationist rhetoric. Some Europeans and Canadians are boycotting American goods and business altogether.  

The overall picture is one of dynamic shifts in international trade and investment to address risks associated with geopolitical uncertainty. Firms and governments are trying to avoid further risk and, in many cases, avoiding doing business and investment in crisis zones. Critically, many nations are diversifying trade away from the US to safeguard against further economic unpredictability.  

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues also remain a central concern. An interviewee said: “there will be more environmental related crisis matters coming into play.” This outlook aligns with current climate forecasts, which predict another year of extreme weather events including wildfires and hurricanes. The increasing severity of these events has caused insurers to continue to reduce coverage and increase premiums in riskier regions of the world, which coincides with greater demand for advice relating to severe weather events and environmental risks.  

As climate-related litigation continues to rise, businesses are increasingly exposed to legal risk stemming from failure to meet emissions targets, inadequate climate disclosures, or environmental harm caused by operations or supply chains. Legal professionals report a surge in demand for advice on climate liability, particularly in jurisdictions where regulatory frameworks are tightening, such as the EU. 

Private sector entities and governments still lack the appetite to address carbon emissions; one commentator pointed out that “in the wake of our global cost of living crisis, how important is decarbonisation in that context? Dealing with climate change is too expensive, to put it bluntly.” With no signs of letting up, climate related risks and demand for advisory services surrounding them will continue to be exacerbated by rising emissions.  

Cybersecurity remains a critical issue for corporate executives. AI-enhanced phishing scams and deepfake technologies are increasingly being used in cyberattacks. “We are seeing deepfakes used against companies, mainly voice at the moment, but also more convincing deepfakes on video calls,” observed a source.  

Threat actors are also adopting more strategic approaches. One source explained that they had been seeing “cyber incidents where threat actors have stolen data but also take the time to analyse the data and realise what will commercially, contractually, and regulatory hurt companies if it is leaked.” The same interviewee noted that these situations put “a lot of pressure on the company who need guidance from both incident managers and legal professionals.” This targeted approach is being assisted with the use of AI to analyse stolen data for the highest value and most sensitive information. In addition to giving threat actors even greater leverage for extortion, these leaks can cause regulatory penalties as well as reputational and financial damage.  

In this climate of political volatility, environmental crisis, and evolving cyber threats, demand for scenario planning, legal counsel, and crisis preparedness remains high across the crisis and risk management sector in 2025. 

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