CHINA: An Introduction to Corporate/Commercial: Shanghai (PRC Firms)
2023年是上海从疫情当中逐渐恢复的重要年度，春节假期以及五一假期的人流涌动已经率先吹响了旅游行业复苏的号角，随时而来的是餐饮、零售行业的康复。上述现象有一部分应当归属于长期疫情封控措施后的报复性消费，还有一部分应当归属于大众对于市场的信心增长。因此，从短期现象而言，市场相比较于2022年更有活力，信心增强。
2023 is a year of great significance for the city of Shanghai to gradually recover from the influence of the COVID Epidemic. The resurgence is first and foremost demonstrated by the huge influx of people during the Spring Festival and May Day (Labour Day) Holidays indicating the prosperity of the tourism industry, followed by the rapid recovery of catering and retail industries. The phenomena above shall be partly attributed to “retaliatory consumption” arising from the end of epidemic control measures over an extensive period of time, and partly attributed to the growth of public confidence in the market. Therefore, from the perspective of ephemeral phenomenon, 2023 is bringing a more dynamic, bright and confident market in comparison to 2022.
但是从更加宏观的角度而言，三年的疫情政策已经导致大量中小企业停业以及破产引起了多米诺的骨牌效应。一方面，全社会的失业率整体攀升，导致居民消费实力整体下滑，短期的复苏现象难以掩盖消费意愿的疲软，零售市场（尤其是面向中高端人群的市场）将持续面临挑战，另一方面，机构投资者的表现更加保守，将继续采取收缩投资或者持币等待的策略，导致投资机构募资困难，自由市场的融资短期内难以走出困境。除此之外，上海同时也将面对外资企业的「撤退」以及「中国制造」相关产业逐步转移东南亚的压力，产业的转型升级所导致的阵痛，在疫情的「麻醉」效果褪去后，显得尤为直接。
However, from a more macroscopic perspective, the epidemic control measures put in place over the past three years have inevitably led to the closure and bankruptcy of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, causing a domino effect. On the one hand, the overall unemployment rate of society has leapt, causing a decline in residents’ overall consumption capacity, which is hard to be covered up by the appearance of short-term recovery. The retail market (especially for those that target at high-and-mid-end consumers) will continue to face challenges. On the other hand, institutional investors are seen to act in a more conservative manner by adopting strategies including contraction of investments or holding, resulting in difficulties for investment institutions to raise capital. Free market financing will still be trapped in an inextricable predicament for the short run. Moreover, Shanghai is also facing the pressure created from the "retreat" of foreign invested enterprises and the gradual shift of "Made in China" related industries to Southeast Asia. The effect in connection with industrial transformation and upgrading is becoming particularly distinct after the "anesthesia" effect of the epidemic fades.
综合考虑到日益复杂的国际形势，以及去全球化的浪潮影响，我们认为2023年在商业上应当更加关注结构性机会，尤其是合成生物、绿色能源、高新材料、人工智能等领域。其中在产业安全方面，我们尤其关注农业相关的科技创新项目。2023年1月2日，中共中央、国务院发布了《关于做好2023年全面推进乡村振兴重点工作的意见》，进一步贯彻了习主席之前提出的《乡村振兴战略》。我们也注意到中国政府目前在生物育种、基因编辑、生物农药等方面，均提出了多项支持政策，进一步鼓励相关产业的发展与创新。
Upon a comprehensive consideration on the increasing complexity of the international trends and the impact of de-globalization, we believe that in 2023, more attention should be paid to structural opportunities in business, especially in the fields of synthetic biology, green energy, high-tech materials, artificial intelligence, etc. Out of which in terms of industry safety, we have a particularly focus on agricultural-related technological innovation projects. On 2 January 2023, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council of PRC issued “Opinions on Furthering the Comprehensive Advancement of Key Tasks for Rural Revitalization in 2023”, which is a further implementation of the “Rural Revitalization Strategy” put forward by President Xi. We also note that the PRC government has been continuously launching policies in support of industries including bio-breeding, gene editing, bio-pesticides and other aspects to encourage the development and innovation of related technologies and their application.
我们同时也注意到，在绿色能源领域，国资相关的机构正在全力推动新能源科技的创新，尤其是钠离子电池、氢能电池相关的科技创新项目，可以有效弥补中国对于锂矿的进口依赖，甚至可以上升到战略安全的程序，因此上述创新项目呈现出炙手可热的趋势。在高新材料领域，以上海政府为代表的地方政府通过整合其现有的产业优势，通过材料创新等底层工具的开发，进一步完善其半导体相关产业链，也可贡献于军工、航天等行业。而在人工智能领域，ChatGPT无疑对传统互联网行业造成了颠覆性的冲击，人工智能的快速发展将对整个互联网产业的传统工作方式形成长久的改变，也将促使产业被迫升级。
It is further noted that in the field of green energy, state-owned enterprises and institutions are vigorously promoting innovation in new energy technologies, especially the projects related to sodium-ion batteries and hydrogen energy batteries, which can effectively compensate for China's dependence on lithium ore imports. The promotion and support in these areas also provides the capability to building a solid foundation for strategic safety procedures, and unsurprisingly investment opportunities for the forgoing projects have become viral and is representing a hot trend. When focusing on the field of high-tech materials, local governments with the Shanghai government in the lead holds the aim to improve the semiconductor-related industry chain by integrating the existing industrial advantages, along with the development of underlying tools such as material innovation to further contribute to industries such as military and aerospace. In the field of artificial intelligence (AI), ChatGPT has undoubtedly caused a mind blowing impact on the traditional Internet industry. The rapid development of AI is believed to have a long-term impact in the traditional working methods of the Internet industry and to force an entire revolution.
在司法诉讼方面，我们预计2023年关于疫情所导致的货物买卖纠纷、租赁纠纷、业绩对赌纠纷将下降，司法系统对不可抗力、情势变更等法律规定的适用将重新趋于谨慎。但是投资纠纷、虚拟资产纠纷、上市公司特有的虚假陈述以及信息披露纠纷将逐步增加，经济板块的变化将最终体现在末端的争议解决环节，也属于诉讼相关的结构性机构。
In terms of judicial litigation, we expect that in 2023, disputes related to the purchase and sale of goods, leasing, and Valuation Adjustment Mechanism (VAM) arising from the epidemic will decrease, and the judicial system will be more cautious in the application of relating legal provisions such as force majeure and change of circumstances. However, disputes concerning investment, virtual assets, misrepresentations for listed companies, and information disclosure disputes will be on a gradual rise. The changes in the economic sector will ultimately be reflected in the dispute resolution process at the end and also in structural institutions related to litigation.
整体而言，2023年是机遇与挑战并存的一年，从商业角度而言，审慎判断特殊时期的结构性机会以及国内政策是最重要的风向标，仅就法律服务市场而言，需要面对传统业务正在不断变革甚至被淘汰的趋势，人工智能等新兴科技也将对传统的服务行业提出挑战，法律行业需要以包容的心态与时代浪潮「共振」，回归服务的「本质」去「适应」变化。
Overall, 2023 is a year of both opportunities and challenges. From a business perspective, one of the most important indicator shall be a prudent judgment of structural opportunities and domestic policies during special periods. In terms of the legal service market alone, we need to be prepared for the constantly changing or even fading trend of traditional businesses, as well as the challenges proposed to the traditional service industry by emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. The legal industry needs to “resonate” with the tide of the times with an inclusive mindset, and return to the "essence" of service to "adapt" to changes.