With Andy Burnham expected to become the next Prime Minister later this month, it raises questions about the future direction of UK immigration policy. With the government facing pressure from business groups demanding labour market flexibility while simultaneously confronting the threat posed by Reform UK, immigration could become one of the defining tests of a Burnham premiership.

The key question is whether Burnham will soften some of Labour’s planned restrictions in order to support economic growth, or whether political realities will force him to continue with the immigration reforms as set out on the Immigration White Paper of May 2025.

Burnham’s parliamentary record points to a relatively liberal approach to immigration policy and has previously expressed concern about some of the harsher aspects of proposed settlement reforms and has emphasised the economic contribution made by migrants to cities and regional economies.

However, the political environment Burnham will inherit in 2026 is very different from that of previous Labour governments. Immigration remains one of the most important political issues in the UK. Reform UK continues to exert significant pressure on Labour in many former industrial and working-class constituencies, particularly across the North and Midlands, not least his own new constituency of Makerfield which voted 31.8% for Reform at the last General Election. Any substantial relaxation of immigration controls would almost certainly be portrayed by opponents as a return to the pre-Brexit model of high migration.

Further curbs to net migration?

In recent months, Burnham appears to recognise this reality. During his by-election campaign in Makerfield, he stated that net migration needed to fall further and acknowledged that he is broadly supportive of the current Home Secretary’s proposals but said that the government must get the balance right on its plans to make it harder for migrants to permanently settle in the UK. 

The earned settlement proposals represent one of the most significant overhauls of the immigration system in decades. The idea behind earned settlement is that qualification to settlement will not just be assessed on length of stay, but also places value on an individuals’ contribution to the UK.

One of the key proposals is the increase in the default qualifying period for settlement from the current 5-year qualification period to 10 years, with an opportunity to reduce, or indeed increase the qualifying period based on their contributions to the UK economy and society. Controversially, the Home Secretary wishes to make the new rules retrospective, in that the changes would apply to everyone who has not been granted settlement by the time the new rules apply.

For many migrants already living and working in the UK, these proposals have created considerable uncertainty. The current expectation is that the earned settlement reforms will be implemented in Autumn 2026. The critical question is whether Burnham will proceed with those reforms as planned.

A balancing act

On one hand, delaying or significantly watering down earned settlement reforms would carry political risks. Labour has spent much of the last two years attempting to convince voters that it takes immigration concerns seriously. Abandoning one of its flagship immigration reforms shortly after taking office could provide Reform UK with a powerful political attack line. Furthermore, many Labour MPs representing marginal constituencies may be reluctant to support a retreat from measures that were explicitly designed to demonstrate control over migration levels.

On the other hand, if officials conclude that the proposed reforms would create more workforce shortages, increase bureaucracy, damage recruitment or undermine economic growth, Burham may be more willing to reconsider aspects of the policy. One possible scenario would see Burnham retain the overall earned settlement framework while introducing more generous transitional protections for migrants already in the system.

As things stand, the most likely outcome is neither wholesale liberalisation nor continued hardening. Instead, a Burnham government is likely to maintain Labour’s commitment to controlled migration, preserving the political message that settlement must be earned, but introducing targeted adjustments where economic evidence suggests the existing proposals are too restrictive.

The autumn of 2026 therefore remains the key period to watch. While a delay beyond autumn cannot be ruled out if implementation challenges persist, current political incentives suggest Burnham is more likely to modify and rebrand the reforms than to abandon them altogether.

Published 2 July 2026. By Rebecca Tester, immigration partner, Constantine Law