For many years, discussions about innovation were primarily associated with software development, connectivity, and digital transformation. However, a combination of debates held at the São Paulo Innovation Week (SPIW) and evidence presented in recent studies by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Brazil’s Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) points to a shift in perspective: the next major technological race will be fought before the digital layer: at the source of the materials that make innovation possible. In a landscape shaped by the energy transition, the expansion of artificial intelligence, and the reorganization of global supply chains, critical minerals have become central to economic, industrial, and geopolitical development strategies.
Critical minerals have emerged as strategic assets in the global economy. According to the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, their importance extends far beyond the energy transition. The electronics industry shares supply chains with the solar photovoltaic sector; artificial intelligence and robotics are expected to further increase demand for strategic materials; and the aerospace industry depends heavily on high-performance superalloys. This convergence demonstrates that critical minerals are now at the heart of technological, industrial, and geopolitical competitiveness.
Throughout the SPIW sessions, one message repeatedly surfaced: we are entering an era of competition for resources. This statement reflects a structural shift in the global economy. The current geopolitical environment is characterized by the search for supply security, the diversification of production chains, and efforts to reduce dependence on a limited number of global suppliers.
The IEA also warns that critical mineral markets are becoming increasingly concentrated, particularly in refining and processing activities. China maintains a leading position across much of these value chains, controlling a significant share of the world’s processing capacity for strategic minerals.
It is in this context that Brazil is gaining prominence. The Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 highlights the country as an increasingly strategic destination for investments in critical minerals and rare earth elements. With substantial reserves of lithium, nickel, graphite, copper, niobium, and rare earths, key inputs for the energy transition and emerging technologies, Brazil is well positioned to play a central role in global supply chains and in the new geopolitics of energy and innovation.
This opportunity, however, is far from guaranteed. One of the issues raised during SPIW was the lack of a more robust regulatory framework and a consolidated national strategy for critical minerals. The risk is repeating a familiar pattern: exporting raw materials while importing high-value-added technologies.
This concern is also reflected in Ipea’s 2025 study, What Is Brazil’s Importance in the Global Critical Minerals Value Chain for the Energy Transition? An Analysis of Reserves, Production, Foreign Trade, and Investments, as well as in analyses conducted by industry organizations. Although Brazil holds significant mineral reserves, experts emphasize the need to strengthen domestic production, technological innovation, and value addition within the country.
Another topic discussed at SPIW was the need to view critical minerals beyond the mining sector itself. They connect seemingly distinct industries, including artificial intelligence, defense, electric mobility, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and national security. In a world increasingly dependent on resource-intensive technologies, innovation is no longer just a matter of software; it also depends on the ability to secure and manage physical supply chains.
The discussion becomes even more relevant when viewed through the lens of intellectual property. The economic value of critical minerals lies not only in extraction, but also in the technologies for processing, refining, recycling, advanced materials, next-generation batteries, and industrial solutions developed from them. This is where patents, applied research, and innovation policies become just as important as the availability of natural resources themselves.
Brazil therefore faces a historic window of opportunity. Few countries combine abundant mineral resources and renewable energy potential on a comparable scale. Yet transforming this geological advantage into economic leadership will require coordination among government, universities, research institutions, and the private sector.
The race for critical minerals has already begun. The question that remains is whether Brazil will participate merely as a supplier of raw materials or as a leading developer of the technologies that will define the economy of the coming decades.
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